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2024-12-14 05:37:19

CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.The new format is superimposed with new links, and Zhejiang private enterprises are busy going out to sea, and Zhejiang private enterprises have become the main force of "going out to sea". Data show that from January to October this year, there were 106,000 private enterprises with import and export performance in Zhejiang Province, an increase of 8.3%; The total import and export value is 3.53 trillion yuan, accounting for 80.8% of the total import and export value of the province. Recently, the reporter learned from interviews in Ningbo, Yiwu and other places in Zhejiang that despite the severe macroeconomic situation, the advantages of industrial clusters, technology and manufacturing in China are still obvious. Many private enterprises seize the new opportunities of overseas trade, lay a solid foundation in the direction of R&D, design and brand management, and sketch a new growth curve; At the same time, under the impetus of the government, cross-border e-commerce, overseas warehouses and other new formats go hand in hand and smooth the new link of "going out to sea". (SSE)Promoting Peace and Cooperation Ethiopia and Somalia signed the Ankara Declaration. On December 11th, local time, under the mediation of Turkish President Erdogan, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi and Somali President Mahmoud signed the Ankara Declaration in Ankara, Turkey, announcing that they would promote peace and cooperation.


The offshore RMB (CNH) was quoted at 7.2791 yuan against the US dollar at 05:59 Beijing time, down 212 points from late new york on Tuesday, and traded in the range of 7.2425-7.2921 yuan in the whole day. After the A-share market closed, there was a rapid decline.Market News: Most members of the US House of Representatives support the $895 billion national defense policy bill, and voting continues.The Jehad delegation will discuss the exchange of detainees with Israel. On the night of 11th local time, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jehad) said that the delegation including its Secretary-General Zeyad Nahara had arrived in Cairo. The delegation will discuss the latest progress of the agreement on the exchange of detainees with Israel and the ways to provide assistance to the Gaza Strip.


The Swiss National Bank sharply cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the Swiss National Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.50%, which is the fourth consecutive interest rate cut. The market generally expects to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.Market participants: In 2025, the steel industry may deduce the upstream profit-making logic. At the 2025 China steel market prospect and the annual meeting of "My Steel", whether the profit space of steel enterprises can be enlarged in 2025, whether the supply-side capacity will be withdrawn in an orderly manner, and what factors should be relied on for the long-term development of enterprises have become the minds of many participants. The industry believes that the survival pressure of steel enterprises may be eased in 2025. The upstream supply of iron ore, coke and coking coal will reduce their prices, and the cost of steel enterprises will fall. The market may deduce the upstream profit-making logic. Market participants said that although steel prices are still expected to decline in 2025, the profit margin of steel enterprises may increase. (SSE)Morgan Stanley downgraded Hikvision to equal rating, with a target price of RMB in 36 yuan. Andy Meng, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, was previously rated as over-matched. The target price is 36 yuan RMB, which is up by 14%.

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